Breakthrough Tracker record

The bunkbed conjecture is false

The authors construct an explicit finite planar graph with 7,222 vertices that violates the bunkbed percolation inequality.

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Stable ID
math-bunkbed-conjecture-disproof-2025
Revision
math-bunkbed-conjecture-disproof-2025.v1
Field
Mathematics · Probability and graph theory
Evidence
Tier 1 · Peer reviewed: Yes
Record state
Current · Peer-reviewed published disproof
Last checked

AI role

No generative-AI role was disclosed; computation and search aided discovery, while the final proof is mathematical.

Record details

Problem or result
Bunkbed conjecture in percolation
Authors
Nikita Gladkov, Igor Pak and Aleksandr Zimin
Institutions
University of California, Los Angeles and Massachusetts Institute of Technology at publication
Result date
Preprint October 3, 2024; published June 13, 2025

Why it matters

The peer-reviewed counterexample overturns an intuitively compelling conjecture studied for roughly four decades.

Limits

The disproof does not show that every bunkbed-type inequality fails. Restricted graph classes and related variants may remain true.

Sources

  1. Primary: Gladkov, Pak and Zimin, The bunkbed conjecture is false
  2. Primary: Peer-reviewed PNAS article
  3. Independent: Quanta, Math's 'Bunkbed Conjecture' Has Been Debunked

Correction and revision history

  1. Added on 2026-07-22 as the only peer-reviewed published disproof in the initial 16-card mathematics set.

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