{
  "receipt_template_version": "1.0",
  "methodology_version": "1.0",
  "methodology_url": "https://kingy.ai/blog/ai-prediction-ledger/#prospective-scoring-policy",
  "receipt_kind": "hypothetical_example",
  "publication_status": "example_only",
  "example_notice": "Entirely fictional validator demonstration with deliberate errors and missing review fields. All people, sources, dates, observations, outcomes and any populated review actions are fictional. Reserved example.invalid URLs are placeholders. No canonical record is assessed; exclude this example from every real aggregate.",
  "assessment_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-VALIDATOR-DEMO-001",
  "assessment_date": "2027-02-01",
  "forecast": {
    "record_id": null,
    "forecast_family_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-FAMILY-001",
    "forecaster": "Fictional Example Labs spokesperson",
    "exact_quote": "There is an 80% chance our pilot service launches by January 31, 2027.",
    "statement_date": "2026-12-15",
    "date_precision": "exact_day",
    "primary_source_url": "https://example.invalid/fictional-forecast",
    "archived_source_url": null,
    "source_locator": "Fictional transcript, paragraph 1",
    "qualifiers_and_conditions": [
      "80% probability; pilot service only"
    ]
  },
  "resolution_contract": {
    "contract_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-CONTRACT-001",
    "contract_version": "1.0",
    "registered_at": "2026-12-16T12:00:00Z",
    "frozen_at": "2026-12-16T12:00:00Z",
    "frozen_copy_location": "https://example.invalid/fictional-frozen-contract",
    "designation": "prospective",
    "knowledge_timing_note": "In this fictional scenario, the contract was frozen before the launch outcome was observable.",
    "event_or_quantity": "Launch of the named pilot service",
    "population": "The single named Example Labs pilot service",
    "measurement": {
      "metric": "Qualifying pilot launch occurred by the deadline",
      "denominator": "One contracted launch event",
      "units": "binary event",
      "sampling_method": "Inspect the complete dated pilot launch and service-operation records"
    },
    "success_rule": "Met if the named pilot accepts at least one external participant and completes one service transaction on or before the deadline; a demo or announcement alone does not qualify.",
    "deadline": {
      "start": null,
      "end": "2027-01-31T23:59:59Z",
      "timezone": "UTC",
      "precision": "exact_day"
    },
    "allowed_human_assistance": "Human operation is permitted; autonomous operation is not part of this fictional claim.",
    "express_conditions": [],
    "acceptable_primary_evidence": "Dated service-operation records identifying the pilot, external participation and a completed transaction",
    "review_publication_cutoff": "2027-02-01T23:59:59Z",
    "explicit_probability": {
      "value_0_to_1": 0.8,
      "quoted_expression": "80% chance",
      "source_locator": "Fictional transcript, paragraph 1"
    },
    "independent_subclaims": []
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "evidence_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-EV-001",
      "primary_source_url": "https://example.invalid/fictional-launch-record",
      "archived_source_url": null,
      "publisher_or_author": "Fictional Example Labs",
      "source_type": "hypothetical_primary_operation_record",
      "publication_date": "2027-01-21",
      "observation_start": "2027-01-20T10:00:00Z",
      "observation_end": "2027-01-20T10:05:00Z",
      "exact_passage": "Fictional operation record: external participant P-001 completed pilot transaction TX-001 at 10:05 UTC on January 20, 2027.",
      "locator": "Fictional record TX-001",
      "supports": "The contracted pilot launch conditions occurred before the deadline",
      "limitations": [
        "Entirely fictional; establishes no real-world deployment or outcome"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "observations": [
    {
      "observation_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-OBS-001",
      "metric": "Qualifying pilot launch occurred by the deadline",
      "value": 1,
      "units": "binary event",
      "population_measured": "The single named fictional pilot service",
      "observation_start": "2027-01-20T10:00:00Z",
      "observation_end": "2027-01-20T10:05:00Z",
      "uncertainty": {
        "lower": null,
        "upper": null,
        "description": "Exact event occurrence is assumed solely for this fictional example"
      },
      "evidence_ids": [
        "EXAMPLE-ONLY-EV-001"
      ],
      "limitations": [
        "No extrapolation to other services or autonomous capability"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "assessment": {
    "state": "met",
    "as_of": "2027-02-01T23:59:59Z",
    "reason": "The fictional record satisfies all contracted launch conditions before the deadline.",
    "evidence_ids": [
      "EXAMPLE-ONLY-EV-001"
    ],
    "condition_findings": [],
    "subclaim_findings": [],
    "limitations_and_gaps": [
      "Hypothetical demonstration of the receipt format; no real forecast assessed"
    ]
  },
  "calculations": [
    {
      "measure": "brier_loss",
      "formula": "(p - y)^2",
      "inputs": {
        "p": 0.8,
        "y": 1
      },
      "result_unrounded": 0.05,
      "exact_fraction": null,
      "units": "squared probability error",
      "evidence_ids": [
        "EXAMPLE-ONLY-EV-001"
      ],
      "withheld_reason": null
    },
    {
      "measure": "fulfillment",
      "formula": "1 if met, 0 if missed",
      "inputs": {
        "y": 1
      },
      "result_unrounded": 0.45,
      "exact_fraction": null,
      "units": "fraction",
      "evidence_ids": [
        "EXAMPLE-ONLY-EV-001"
      ],
      "withheld_reason": null
    }
  ],
  "aggregate_treatment": {
    "initial_forecast_in_family": true,
    "designated_family_representative": true,
    "prospective_aggregate_inclusion": "excluded",
    "reason": "Hypothetical examples are excluded from every real forecast aggregate.",
    "existing_historical_eligibility_action": "no_change"
  },
  "review": {
    "assessor": "Fictional reviewer A",
    "assessed_at": "2027-02-01T12:00:00Z",
    "second_reviewer": null,
    "reviewed_at": null,
    "reproduced_from_receipt": false,
    "material_interpretation_disagreement": false,
    "disagreement_note": "Fictional example only. A second review has deliberately not been recorded; false means reproduction has not been confirmed in this demonstration."
  },
  "revision": {
    "receipt_revision": 1,
    "previous_receipt_id": null,
    "previous_assessment": null,
    "changes": [],
    "reason": "Initial hypothetical example"
  },
  "historical_preservation": {
    "scope": "Separate assessment receipt only. Do not overwrite canonical historical claims, statuses, scores or eligibility.",
    "legacy_fields_to_write": []
  }
}