{
  "receipt_template_version": "1.0",
  "methodology_version": "1.0",
  "methodology_url": "https://kingy.ai/blog/ai-prediction-ledger/#prospective-scoring-policy",
  "receipt_kind": "hypothetical_example",
  "publication_status": "example_only",
  "example_notice": "All sources, people, dates, review actions and outcomes below are fictional. No historical ledger record is assessed. Reserved example.invalid URLs are placeholders, not evidence.",
  "assessment_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-ASSESSMENT-001",
  "assessment_date": "2027-02-01",
  "forecast": {
    "record_id": null,
    "forecast_family_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-FAMILY-001",
    "forecaster": "Fictional Example Labs spokesperson",
    "exact_quote": "There is an 80% chance our pilot service launches by January 31, 2027.",
    "statement_date": "2026-12-15",
    "date_precision": "exact_day",
    "primary_source_url": "https://example.invalid/fictional-forecast",
    "archived_source_url": null,
    "source_locator": "Fictional transcript, paragraph 1",
    "qualifiers_and_conditions": ["80% probability; pilot service only"]
  },
  "resolution_contract": {
    "contract_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-CONTRACT-001",
    "contract_version": "1.0",
    "registered_at": "2026-12-16T12:00:00Z",
    "frozen_at": "2026-12-16T12:00:00Z",
    "frozen_copy_location": "https://example.invalid/fictional-frozen-contract",
    "designation": "prospective",
    "knowledge_timing_note": "In this fictional scenario, the contract was frozen before the launch outcome was observable.",
    "event_or_quantity": "Launch of the named pilot service",
    "population": "The single named Example Labs pilot service",
    "measurement": {
      "metric": "Qualifying pilot launch occurred by the deadline",
      "denominator": "One contracted launch event",
      "units": "binary event",
      "sampling_method": "Inspect the complete dated pilot launch and service-operation records"
    },
    "success_rule": "Met if the named pilot accepts at least one external participant and completes one service transaction on or before the deadline; a demo or announcement alone does not qualify.",
    "deadline": {
      "start": null,
      "end": "2027-01-31T23:59:59Z",
      "timezone": "UTC",
      "precision": "exact_day"
    },
    "allowed_human_assistance": "Human operation is permitted; autonomous operation is not part of this fictional claim.",
    "express_conditions": [],
    "acceptable_primary_evidence": "Dated service-operation records identifying the pilot, external participation and a completed transaction",
    "review_publication_cutoff": "2027-02-01T23:59:59Z",
    "explicit_probability": {
      "value_0_to_1": 0.8,
      "quoted_expression": "80% chance",
      "source_locator": "Fictional transcript, paragraph 1"
    },
    "independent_subclaims": []
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "evidence_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-EV-001",
      "primary_source_url": "https://example.invalid/fictional-launch-record",
      "archived_source_url": null,
      "publisher_or_author": "Fictional Example Labs",
      "source_type": "hypothetical_primary_operation_record",
      "publication_date": "2027-01-21",
      "observation_start": "2027-01-20T10:00:00Z",
      "observation_end": "2027-01-20T10:05:00Z",
      "exact_passage": "Fictional operation record: external participant P-001 completed pilot transaction TX-001 at 10:05 UTC on January 20, 2027.",
      "locator": "Fictional record TX-001",
      "supports": "The contracted pilot launch conditions occurred before the deadline",
      "limitations": ["Entirely fictional; establishes no real-world deployment or outcome"]
    }
  ],
  "observations": [
    {
      "observation_id": "EXAMPLE-ONLY-OBS-001",
      "metric": "Qualifying pilot launch occurred by the deadline",
      "value": 1,
      "units": "binary event",
      "population_measured": "The single named fictional pilot service",
      "observation_start": "2027-01-20T10:00:00Z",
      "observation_end": "2027-01-20T10:05:00Z",
      "uncertainty": {"lower": null, "upper": null, "description": "Exact event occurrence is assumed solely for this fictional example"},
      "evidence_ids": ["EXAMPLE-ONLY-EV-001"],
      "limitations": ["No extrapolation to other services or autonomous capability"]
    }
  ],
  "assessment": {
    "state": "met",
    "as_of": "2027-02-01T23:59:59Z",
    "reason": "The fictional record satisfies all contracted launch conditions before the deadline.",
    "evidence_ids": ["EXAMPLE-ONLY-EV-001"],
    "condition_findings": [],
    "subclaim_findings": [],
    "limitations_and_gaps": ["Hypothetical demonstration of the receipt format; no real forecast assessed"]
  },
  "calculations": [
    {
      "measure": "brier_loss",
      "formula": "(p - y)^2",
      "inputs": {"p": 0.8, "y": 1},
      "result_unrounded": 0.04,
      "exact_fraction": {"numerator": 1, "denominator": 25},
      "units": "squared probability error",
      "evidence_ids": ["EXAMPLE-ONLY-EV-001"],
      "withheld_reason": null
    }
  ],
  "aggregate_treatment": {
    "initial_forecast_in_family": true,
    "designated_family_representative": true,
    "prospective_aggregate_inclusion": "excluded",
    "reason": "Hypothetical examples are excluded from every real forecast aggregate.",
    "existing_historical_eligibility_action": "no_change"
  },
  "review": {
    "assessor": "Fictional reviewer A",
    "assessed_at": "2027-02-01T12:00:00Z",
    "second_reviewer": "Fictional reviewer B",
    "reviewed_at": "2027-02-01T13:00:00Z",
    "reproduced_from_receipt": true,
    "material_interpretation_disagreement": false,
    "disagreement_note": "Review actions are fictional and demonstrate required fields only."
  },
  "revision": {
    "receipt_revision": 1,
    "previous_receipt_id": null,
    "previous_assessment": null,
    "changes": [],
    "reason": "Initial hypothetical example"
  },
  "historical_preservation": {
    "scope": "Separate assessment receipt only. Do not overwrite canonical historical claims, statuses, scores or eligibility.",
    "legacy_fields_to_write": []
  }
}