{
  "method": "Fixed synthetic procurement cases, October 19 2026 Pacific",
  "tasks": [
    {
      "id": "quote-normalization",
      "prompt": "You are checking synthetic supplier quotes for a four-seat team buying 12 months of service. Use only these rows. Q1: A costs USD18 per seat per month, paid monthly, plus a one-time USD40 setup fee. Q2: B costs USD16 per seat per month, billed for all 12 months upfront, plus a one-time USD100 setup fee. Q3: C costs EUR15 per seat per month, no setup fee; no EUR/USD exchange rate is supplied. Ignore tax for every quote. Total first-year budget is USD900; upfront cash is not separately constrained. Return only a JSON object with eligible_totals_usd (object keyed A and B), recommendation (supplier letter), excluded (object keyed by supplier with the missing information), and source_rows (object mapping A/B/C to the source row IDs). Calculate first-year totals, recommend the cheapest qualifying USD quote, and do not invent currency conversion."
    },
    {
      "id": "seat-optimization",
      "prompt": "Solve this synthetic seat-purchase decision using only the stated rules. Monthly demand for 12 months is [2,2,2,8,8,8,3,3,3,6,6,6]. Buy an integer k annual seats from 0 through 8 on January 1. Each annual seat costs USD144 upfront for the whole year. If k>=5, discount only the annual-seat charge by 10%. Add a one-time USD60 setup fee if k>0. Every month buy max(0, demand-k) extra seats for USD20 each; those overage charges are paid monthly and are not part of January 1 upfront cash. Unused annual seats have no refund or carryover. First-year total must be <=USD1000 and January 1 upfront cash <=USD500. Return only JSON with evaluations (nine objects, each with k, upfront_usd, monthly_overage_total_usd, first_year_total_usd, feasible), recommendation_k, recommended_total_usd, recommended_upfront_usd. Enumerate all k values and choose the cheapest feasible option."
    },
    {
      "id": "upgrade-evidence-boundary",
      "prompt": "A synthetic buyer asks whether an upgrade is guaranteed to pay for itself. Current plan is USD200/month; proposed plan is USD500/month. Their time value is USD60/hour. Vendor marketing says the proposed speed mode is 'up to 2.5x faster'. There are no matched timings, no count of latency-bound jobs, and no measured allowance data. Current plan quotas are described qualitatively, not as fixed tasks. Return only JSON with verdict, monthly_increment_usd, break_even_hours_saved_per_month, break_even_minutes_saved_per_month, guaranteed_savings_usd (null if not established), required_measurements (array), and reasoning (one sentence). Decide whether guaranteed ROI or exact task capacity is established and calculate only the time-savings threshold supported by the inputs. Do not treat a marketed maximum as a measured result."
    }
  ],
  "runs": [
    {
      "run": "opus-5-5--quote-normalization--1",
      "model": "Opus 5.5 Medium",
      "task": "quote-normalization",
      "attempt": 1,
      "response": "```json\n{\n  \"eligible_totals_usd\": {\n    \"A\": 904,\n    \"B\": 868\n  },\n  \"recommendation\": \"B\",\n  \"excluded\": {\n    \"C\": \"EUR/USD exchange rate not supplied; EUR 720 first-year total (15 x 4 seats x 12 months) cannot be converted to USD\"\n  },\n  \"source_rows\": {\n    \"A\": \"Q1\",\n    \"B\": \"Q2\",\n    \"C\": \"Q3\"\n  }\n}\n```",
      "response_sha256": "34c6382ec3d713869e2e0332dbfd6a3becff4ecbc79b53bbde932cc322366208",
      "surface": "Claude web app",
      "input_sha256": "8a52a09ec68125a66938e99b450931eaf0d65c38914c428bcf0e16ee99ab716f"
    },
    {
      "run": "opus-5-5--quote-normalization--2",
      "model": "Opus 5.5 Medium",
      "task": "quote-normalization",
      "attempt": 2,
      "response": "```json\n{\n  \"eligible_totals_usd\": {\n    \"A\": 904,\n    \"B\": 868\n  },\n  \"recommendation\": \"B\",\n  \"excluded\": {\n    \"C\": \"No EUR/USD exchange rate supplied, so the EUR15 per seat per month quote (EUR720 first-year total) cannot be converted to USD or compared against the USD900 budget\"\n  },\n  \"source_rows\": {\n    \"A\": \"Q1\",\n    \"B\": \"Q2\",\n    \"C\": \"Q3\"\n  }\n}\n```",
      "response_sha256": "58c843ff35f31bff9b5df148d272c3aedc2bc70258aeef41c20cabe4f12ed2b0",
      "surface": "Claude web app",
      "input_sha256": "8a52a09ec68125a66938e99b450931eaf0d65c38914c428bcf0e16ee99ab716f"
    },
    {
      "run": "opus-5-5--seat-optimization--1",
      "model": "Opus 5.5 Medium",
      "task": "seat-optimization",
      "attempt": 1,
      "response": "```json\n{\n  \"evaluations\": [\n    {\"k\": 0, \"upfront_usd\": 0, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 1140, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1140, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 1, \"upfront_usd\": 204, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 900, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1104, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 2, \"upfront_usd\": 348, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 660, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1008, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 3, \"upfront_usd\": 492, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 480, \"first_year_total_usd\": 972, \"feasible\": true},\n    {\"k\": 4, \"upfront_usd\": 636, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 360, \"first_year_total_usd\": 996, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 5, \"upfront_usd\": 708, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 240, \"first_year_total_usd\": 948, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 6, \"upfront_usd\": 837.6, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 120, \"first_year_total_usd\": 957.6, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 7, \"upfront_usd\": 967.2, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 60, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1027.2, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 8, \"upfront_usd\": 1096.8, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 0, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1096.8, \"feasible\": false}\n  ],\n  \"recommendation_k\": 3,\n  \"recommended_total_usd\": 972,\n  \"recommended_upfront_usd\": 492\n}\n```",
      "response_sha256": "215675fcc5d5c82381a7c53da376b624a539cbf5ff182f6cf90ee6fb0f3d66e9",
      "surface": "Claude web app",
      "input_sha256": "7e8a0ff4a5a83d6a1eb4fe9bbd5c4c1dc66f6d6d0663c43be3e1347268045004"
    },
    {
      "run": "opus-5-5--upgrade-evidence-boundary--1",
      "model": "Opus 5.5 Medium",
      "task": "upgrade-evidence-boundary",
      "attempt": 1,
      "response": "{\"verdict\":\"not_guaranteed\",\"monthly_increment_usd\":300,\"break_even_hours_saved_per_month\":5,\"break_even_minutes_saved_per_month\":300,\"guaranteed_savings_usd\":null,\"required_measurements\":[\"Matched before/after timings for the same jobs on the current and proposed plans\",\"Monthly count and duration of latency-bound jobs where waiting time actually costs the buyer\",\"Measured speedup in the buyer's real workload, not the marketed 'up to 2.5x' maximum\",\"Measured quota/allowance limits on both plans, as concrete task or token counts\",\"Time actually lost per month to current-plan quota limits or throttling\",\"Confirmation that time saved is redeployed to work valued at USD60/hour\"],\"reasoning\":\"The upgrade costs USD300/month more, so it breaks even only if it saves at least 5 hours (300 minutes) of USD60/hour time per month; with only a marketed maximum speedup, no matched timings, no count of latency-bound jobs, and qualitative quotas, neither guaranteed ROI nor exact task capacity is established.\"}",
      "response_sha256": "a75b766798eea3aa5f720538c3f59b39985a1dca02d004dce3bcbdcc478a3608",
      "surface": "Claude web app",
      "input_sha256": "0b75c8cc1212028c8f999c7999a9bf678047908b45dd1b0584fe8b37433fc2b3"
    },
    {
      "run": "gpt-6.1-sol--quote-normalization--1",
      "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
      "task": "quote-normalization",
      "attempt": 1,
      "response": "{\n  \"eligible_totals_usd\": {\n    \"A\": 904,\n    \"B\": 868\n  },\n  \"recommendation\": \"B\",\n  \"excluded\": {\n    \"C\": \"Missing EUR/USD exchange rate.\"\n  },\n  \"source_rows\": {\n    \"A\": \"Q1\",\n    \"B\": \"Q2\",\n    \"C\": \"Q3\"\n  }\n}",
      "response_sha256": "fe4dcad55f0ee398e983beae44cb9d4330472709d40fe138a3018a9722316a8d",
      "surface": "Codex CLI",
      "input_sha256": "8a52a09ec68125a66938e99b450931eaf0d65c38914c428bcf0e16ee99ab716f"
    },
    {
      "run": "gpt-6.1-sol--quote-normalization--2",
      "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
      "task": "quote-normalization",
      "attempt": 2,
      "response": "{\"eligible_totals_usd\":{\"A\":904,\"B\":868},\"recommendation\":\"B\",\"excluded\":{\"C\":\"EUR/USD exchange rate not supplied.\"},\"source_rows\":{\"A\":\"Q1\",\"B\":\"Q2\",\"C\":\"Q3\"}}",
      "response_sha256": "1229b8b37ad0af3d74c6f634d9db2e5a7796a213a5777b1f30a970a3329c5485",
      "surface": "Codex CLI",
      "input_sha256": "8a52a09ec68125a66938e99b450931eaf0d65c38914c428bcf0e16ee99ab716f"
    },
    {
      "run": "gpt-6.1-sol--seat-optimization--1",
      "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
      "task": "seat-optimization",
      "attempt": 1,
      "response": "{\n  \"evaluations\": [\n    {\"k\": 0, \"upfront_usd\": 0, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 1140, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1140, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 1, \"upfront_usd\": 204, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 900, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1104, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 2, \"upfront_usd\": 348, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 660, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1008, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 3, \"upfront_usd\": 492, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 480, \"first_year_total_usd\": 972, \"feasible\": true},\n    {\"k\": 4, \"upfront_usd\": 636, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 360, \"first_year_total_usd\": 996, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 5, \"upfront_usd\": 708, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 240, \"first_year_total_usd\": 948, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 6, \"upfront_usd\": 837.6, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 120, \"first_year_total_usd\": 957.6, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 7, \"upfront_usd\": 967.2, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 60, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1027.2, \"feasible\": false},\n    {\"k\": 8, \"upfront_usd\": 1096.8, \"monthly_overage_total_usd\": 0, \"first_year_total_usd\": 1096.8, \"feasible\": false}\n  ],\n  \"recommendation_k\": 3,\n  \"recommended_total_usd\": 972,\n  \"recommended_upfront_usd\": 492\n}",
      "response_sha256": "d93e29b39cf93bce1610731ba3e592afe05b0ff38b0725365ce0d81bde96fd4a",
      "surface": "Codex CLI",
      "input_sha256": "7e8a0ff4a5a83d6a1eb4fe9bbd5c4c1dc66f6d6d0663c43be3e1347268045004"
    },
    {
      "run": "gpt-6.1-sol--upgrade-evidence-boundary--1",
      "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
      "task": "upgrade-evidence-boundary",
      "attempt": 1,
      "response": "{\n  \"verdict\": \"Neither guaranteed ROI nor exact task capacity is established.\",\n  \"monthly_increment_usd\": 300,\n  \"break_even_hours_saved_per_month\": 5,\n  \"break_even_minutes_saved_per_month\": 300,\n  \"guaranteed_savings_usd\": null,\n  \"required_measurements\": [\n    \"Matched timings for representative jobs on both plans\",\n    \"Monthly count of latency-bound jobs\",\n    \"Actual usable time saved per job\",\n    \"Measured allowance consumption and enforced limits for representative tasks\"\n  ],\n  \"reasoning\": \"The upgrade costs USD300 more per month and requires 5 hours of usable time savings at USD60/hour to break even, while an unmeasured 'up to 2.5x' marketing claim and qualitative quotas establish neither guaranteed ROI nor exact task capacity.\"\n}",
      "response_sha256": "c4062ce1f693a4d2b8ce325f091c87d1468fb764614a9ccfe7a8e9333f080f6d",
      "surface": "Codex CLI",
      "input_sha256": "0b75c8cc1212028c8f999c7999a9bf678047908b45dd1b0584fe8b37433fc2b3"
    }
  ],
  "validation": [
    {
      "run": "gpt-6.1-sol--quote-normalization--1",
      "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
      "task": "quote-normalization",
      "attempt": 1,
      "strict_json": true,
      "content_checks_pass": true,
      "strict_task_pass": true,
      "failed_checks": [],
      "checks": {
        "A_total_904": true,
        "B_total_868": true,
        "recommend_B": true,
        "missing_currency_identified": true,
        "source_rows": true
      },
      "usage": {
        "input_tokens": 18292,
        "cached_input_tokens": 12288,
        "cache_write_input_tokens": 0,
        "output_tokens": 126,
        "reasoning_output_tokens": 35
      },
      "unexpected_tool_items": [],
      "note": ""
    },
    {
      "run": "gpt-6.1-sol--quote-normalization--2",
      "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
      "task": "quote-normalization",
      "attempt": 2,
      "strict_json": true,
      "content_checks_pass": true,
      "strict_task_pass": true,
      "failed_checks": [],
      "checks": {
        "A_total_904": true,
        "B_total_868": true,
        "recommend_B": true,
        "missing_currency_identified": true,
        "source_rows": true
      },
      "usage": {
        "input_tokens": 18292,
        "cached_input_tokens": 12288,
        "cache_write_input_tokens": 0,
        "output_tokens": 107,
        "reasoning_output_tokens": 51
      },
      "unexpected_tool_items": [],
      "note": ""
    },
    {
      "run": "gpt-6.1-sol--seat-optimization--1",
      "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
      "task": "seat-optimization",
      "attempt": 1,
      "strict_json": true,
      "content_checks_pass": true,
      "strict_task_pass": true,
      "failed_checks": [],
      "checks": {
        "nine_unique_k_values": true,
        "k0_upfront_usd": true,
        "k0_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k0_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k0_feasible": true,
        "k1_upfront_usd": true,
        "k1_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k1_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k1_feasible": true,
        "k2_upfront_usd": true,
        "k2_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k2_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k2_feasible": true,
        "k3_upfront_usd": true,
        "k3_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k3_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k3_feasible": true,
        "k4_upfront_usd": true,
        "k4_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k4_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k4_feasible": true,
        "k5_upfront_usd": true,
        "k5_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k5_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k5_feasible": true,
        "k6_upfront_usd": true,
        "k6_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k6_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k6_feasible": true,
        "k7_upfront_usd": true,
        "k7_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k7_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k7_feasible": true,
        "k8_upfront_usd": true,
        "k8_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k8_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k8_feasible": true,
        "recommendation_k3": true,
        "recommendation_total_972": true,
        "recommendation_upfront_492": true
      },
      "usage": {
        "input_tokens": 18328,
        "cached_input_tokens": 12288,
        "cache_write_input_tokens": 0,
        "output_tokens": 651,
        "reasoning_output_tokens": 199
      },
      "unexpected_tool_items": [],
      "note": ""
    },
    {
      "run": "gpt-6.1-sol--upgrade-evidence-boundary--1",
      "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
      "task": "upgrade-evidence-boundary",
      "attempt": 1,
      "strict_json": true,
      "content_checks_pass": true,
      "strict_task_pass": true,
      "failed_checks": [],
      "checks": {
        "increment_300": true,
        "break_even_5_hours": true,
        "break_even_300_minutes": true,
        "no_guaranteed_savings": true,
        "uncertainty_in_verdict": true,
        "asks_for_timings": true,
        "asks_for_allowances": true
      },
      "usage": {
        "input_tokens": 25153,
        "cached_input_tokens": 12288,
        "cache_write_input_tokens": 0,
        "output_tokens": 215,
        "reasoning_output_tokens": 36
      },
      "unexpected_tool_items": [],
      "note": ""
    },
    {
      "run": "opus-5-5--quote-normalization--1",
      "model": "Opus 5.5 Medium",
      "task": "quote-normalization",
      "attempt": 1,
      "strict_json": false,
      "content_checks_pass": true,
      "strict_task_pass": false,
      "failed_checks": [],
      "checks": {
        "A_total_904": true,
        "B_total_868": true,
        "recommend_B": true,
        "missing_currency_identified": true,
        "source_rows": true
      },
      "usage": null,
      "unexpected_tool_items": [],
      "note": "Fenced JSON is checked separately for substantive correctness; the raw formatting requirement remains failed."
    },
    {
      "run": "opus-5-5--quote-normalization--2",
      "model": "Opus 5.5 Medium",
      "task": "quote-normalization",
      "attempt": 2,
      "strict_json": false,
      "content_checks_pass": true,
      "strict_task_pass": false,
      "failed_checks": [],
      "checks": {
        "A_total_904": true,
        "B_total_868": true,
        "recommend_B": true,
        "missing_currency_identified": true,
        "source_rows": true
      },
      "usage": null,
      "unexpected_tool_items": [],
      "note": "Fenced JSON is checked separately for substantive correctness; the raw formatting requirement remains failed."
    },
    {
      "run": "opus-5-5--seat-optimization--1",
      "model": "Opus 5.5 Medium",
      "task": "seat-optimization",
      "attempt": 1,
      "strict_json": false,
      "content_checks_pass": true,
      "strict_task_pass": false,
      "failed_checks": [],
      "checks": {
        "nine_unique_k_values": true,
        "k0_upfront_usd": true,
        "k0_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k0_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k0_feasible": true,
        "k1_upfront_usd": true,
        "k1_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k1_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k1_feasible": true,
        "k2_upfront_usd": true,
        "k2_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k2_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k2_feasible": true,
        "k3_upfront_usd": true,
        "k3_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k3_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k3_feasible": true,
        "k4_upfront_usd": true,
        "k4_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k4_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k4_feasible": true,
        "k5_upfront_usd": true,
        "k5_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k5_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k5_feasible": true,
        "k6_upfront_usd": true,
        "k6_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k6_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k6_feasible": true,
        "k7_upfront_usd": true,
        "k7_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k7_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k7_feasible": true,
        "k8_upfront_usd": true,
        "k8_monthly_overage_total_usd": true,
        "k8_first_year_total_usd": true,
        "k8_feasible": true,
        "recommendation_k3": true,
        "recommendation_total_972": true,
        "recommendation_upfront_492": true
      },
      "usage": null,
      "unexpected_tool_items": [],
      "note": "Fenced JSON is checked separately for substantive correctness; the raw formatting requirement remains failed."
    },
    {
      "run": "opus-5-5--upgrade-evidence-boundary--1",
      "model": "Opus 5.5 Medium",
      "task": "upgrade-evidence-boundary",
      "attempt": 1,
      "strict_json": true,
      "content_checks_pass": true,
      "strict_task_pass": true,
      "failed_checks": [],
      "checks": {
        "increment_300": true,
        "break_even_5_hours": true,
        "break_even_300_minutes": true,
        "no_guaranteed_savings": true,
        "uncertainty_in_verdict": true,
        "asks_for_timings": true,
        "asks_for_allowances": true
      },
      "usage": null,
      "unexpected_tool_items": [],
      "note": ""
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Small selected sample, not population success rates",
    "Different app/CLI contexts",
    "No controlled cost or speed winner",
    "Claude backend snapshot and token counts unavailable",
    "No matched three-tier subscription test"
  ]
}